What is Normal?

What is Normal?

The news seems to be full of dire predictions about the state of the real estate market. The market was red hot until May of last year when everything hit the brakes as interest rate hikes started hitting. But let’s break down how we got here. We have had one of the longest up cycles in real estate in the past 50 years. The market began to climb in June of 2012 and finally slowed mid 2022. A “normal” upcycle is approximately 5 years followed by an approximately 2 year down cycle. The market began to slow naturally in 2019 when the pandemic hit and changed everything with many reevaluating where they wanted to live causing an exodus from cities and having a phenomenal impact on the real estate market everywhere. This caused the naturally slowing cycle to jump start to a new extreme high fueled by emotion and cheap money. This could not continue.

The current market feels more like a normal market with days on market increasing, some listings making price adjustments, maybe only one offer on a home versus multiple offers. This is considered a normal market. What was happening in the Spring of 2022 was far from normal and not sustainable. It is extremely difficult to predict when different parts of the cycle will begin or end. There is a reason for the saying “you can’t time the market”. 

What we do know is that there is still a scarcity of inventory in Marin, especially homes that have been updated to today's tastes and prepped and staged for sale. These homes are still in high demand and usually sell well and quickly and with the Spring fast approaching, buyers will be back to buy in coveted Marin. And, the market will return to its normal cycle. 

“Buy land. They ain’t making more of that stuff.” -Will Rogers.